On 14 February 2012 the School of Oriental and African Studies, the Oxford Central Africa Forum, and the Royal African Society hosted two panel discussions on the recent elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Please read the requisite introduction and disclaimer related to my note-taking here.
This post is a summary (not a transcript) of Théodore Trefon’s comments from the first panel. The rest of the speakers’ comments, and the Q&A sessions, will follow shortly in separate posts.
Comments in brackets are mine.
Panel 1: The Elections and the International Community
Théodore Trefon, Belgian Royal Museum for Central Africa
Théodore Trefon is a Congo expert specializing in the politics of state-society relations. He has devoted the past 25 years to Congo as a researcher, lecturer, author, project manager and consultant. He heads the Contemporary History Section of the Belgian Royal Museum for Central Africa and is Adjunct Professor of International Relations at Boston University Brussels. Trefon is also the author of Congo Masquerade: The Political Culture of Aid Inefficiency and Reform Failure (African Arguments / ZED Books).
[From Royal African Society event announcement, here]
Moderator:
Just to begin, let’s think about this discussion in the context of the death of Augustin Katumba Mwanke on Sunday, who handled the mining contracts in the Congo.
Théodore Trefon:
Elections and their impact: the question is, do elections in the Congo matter? The answer is both yes and no.
Why yes?
Elections are part of the democratic process. There was some popular enthusiasm for the elections, with people braving bad weather and waiting in line all day to vote. Elections are also a sign of political maturity, a manifestation of political sovereignty, and affirmation of national sovereignty. It reflects respect for international commitments. Electoral mobilization contributes to political awakening in remote areas. In the DRC, there was re-distrubution of parliamentary seats, and some regime strongmen were not re-elected (Thambwe, Endundo, Kabwelulu).
Why no?
For one thing, the 2005-2006 electoral cycle was incomplete. Local elections were never held, so the country went into a new phase in 2011 without finishing the 2005 process. If there’s no accountability between local populations and local representatives, there’s no hyphen between local people and the people in government. The same mistake was reproduced in 2011. Furthermore, the elections were chaotic. There was also pre-electoral manipulation and changes made to the constitution [I believe he is here referring to changes in the electoral law made in January and June 2011, but not sure which he’s referring to or if he’s referring to both]. The membership of the electoral commission was changed [see here and here], which also led to questions of credibility locally and internationally. You have a president who is increasingly marginalized and vulnerable, and thus a political stalemate: who is in control? Who is running the country?
How power is organized in Congo is extrememly fragmented. With major institutions like the World Bank, do they know what’s going on in other sectors, like public health, and with other organizations? There’s a lack of coordination and communication between people in the government and among different sectors. Then there is Kabila [Joseph Kabila, the President], who was seen at the home of Katumba after he died. This was the first time Kabila has been seen since January 5.
Since time is short, I’ll start with my conclusions. There are three possible political scenarios that could emerge:
1. Kabila remains in power, controls the parliament, manipulates international partners, and it’s business as usual. In my opinion this is the most likely scenario.
2. Kabila remains in power but comes under pressure by opposition forces and civil society, and the opposition gets organized for elections in 2016. I think the UDPS [the main opposition party] regrets not being able to capitalize on political relationships in parliament as a result boycotting the 2006 elections. In this scenario they’ll look to have a greater effect in 2016.
3. Kabila is ousted by coup or assassination and Congolese sovereignty erodes.
Since 2001 international partners have devoted a lot of funding and diplomatic effort to bring about positive change. But just because there were elections doesn’t mean things will move ahead. So what are the major challenges? There have been a lot of efforts with international partners, but little tangible success. According to Human Development Index indicators and transparency rankings, Congo is still low or has even declined. It seems we’re in a situation of change without improvement. Reform failure in past ten years is a shared responsibility.
In the context of patrimonial politics, and the high economic stakes, do Congolese authorities really want change? Does the international community want a strong and independent Congo? We’ve had 50 years of Cold War manipulation and other involvement [by the West]. Reform has been handicapped by overwhelming challenges, crisis is historically entrenched, politics and society are complex, and the country is vast and very diverse. MONUSCO’s role has been limited and its claim to fame is that it’s the best airline in Congo. Rwanda is also a challenge, but I don’t want to say that’s the sole reason why there’s not change.
It’s impossible to address all challenges at the same time; everything is a priority, but where to start? Where’s the financial committment? Many strategies make sense at a theoretical level, and there are many great experts working on these challenges, but implementation seems unattainable.
There are two missing links:
1. Adequate administration and lack of an honest, motivated, well-paid cadre of civil servants. [PowerPoint presentation shows photo of a bare office with a few administrators standing around a table.] Where are the phones, the computers, the chairs?
2. Adequate involvement of a vibrant and independent civil society.
Kabila is too weak to share power. Look at the idea of power sharing; the state has to be strong. A vulnerable and fragile state will not be willing to share power; it wants to capture and consolidate power, and once solidified, then you can start sharing. Right now we’re still in the phase of regime consolidation, which is why ciivl society wasn’t able to play a big enough role.
There are success stories too, but they’re problematic. There are many NGOs, IGOs, and other organizations acting on behalf of the state. They replace the state and this perpetuates dependency. And when things go wrong, it’s never the fault of government authorities; it exonerates authorities from responsibility. Security sector? That’s up to the UN. National parks? That’s up to American environmental NGOs.
Final thought: Congo is on the move, but where is it going?
[Power Point shows photo of a woman on a bike, riding away from us, on a path in the forest.]